Monday, June 11, 2012

Taking a moment to look at the bigger picture for longer term investments we can see that we are in a correction phase on the S&P.

I would like to see significant evidence of support developing before looking to get long.

Keeping an eye open for shorting opportunities, both intraday and for multi-day swing trades.


Sort of a sloppy H&S pattern developing, not enough to get me looking long, but signaling that we are in a macro correction.


If level holds 1st target is a retest of the recent lows.

Here are a a few observations on apple AAPL and google GOOG

 

With apple in a very strong upward trend, the perfect setup isn't always going to be present....  Just look at the last run up to new highs.... everyone waiting for a deep congested pullback was left in the dust.  I would probably just be looking at this area as a potential add-on area, and wait for deeper levels to establish before looking for new highs.  Both fundamental and Technicals look good with this company.
  

stepping back a bit on the google chart we see a huge wedge pattern at a critical point.  In a vacuum I would looking hard at the long side, but knowing that the general market is going to tug at all stocks, I'm looking for things to get stronger before opening new longs.  I would like to see how price reacts to the inside level before doing anything.

Strong selloff this morning with plenty of extended entries available, I didn't get short, I usually only sell the low after failing to make new highs.

Expecting a bit of a congestion for the mid day action. 

Opening gap filled quickly.



What a day....  I was getting in late and not getting the followthrough that I was expecting.  Was a tough Point today, but in the end I got it.... eventually, with a max drawdown on the day was 2pts.  



made 1 pt 30 mins before the close.

Friday, June 8, 2012

Rollover Friday so things can get messy.  Traders are looking at two different charts so make sure you have the higher time frame in mind for key levels and stop placement.  Better to stick with trades in the direction of the major move or enjoy a nice day off.

Nothing available during the AM session, waiting to see if the afternoon grinds to a halt or if we will retest the lows before the market closes for the week.  Not interested in longs at the moment, however we'll see how things progress.



Afternoon session continues to push higher..... Still keeping an eye out for a friday afternoon selloff/correction.


Thursday, June 7, 2012

Made up yesterdays loss plus a point.  There were many opportunities this morning, but I only took two of the four setups available.

I passed on the second leg of the downward move, partially because I was not ready for it when it happened, although I had the area marked up.  I did however take the 3rd leg down, due to the inside high that we have not yet tested so that made up for yesterdays counter trend loss.

I then saw a wedge ready to break, however I didn't like the time of day and didn't want to get caught up in a potential congestion area, so I decided to wait for confirmation.  We broke out hard, and I took a break of new highs.  I got lucky as my target was filled to the tick, which usually doesn't happen.



Above is the higher time frame, below is the execution level




Finishing the day at +2 pts, approx 2.5 hours after the bell.

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Trading against the market direction is always tricky, because you have to be ready to run like hell when things are not looking good.  The trouble with that is at any time things can look like they are ready to continue with the trend.

I thought we were due for a more significant pullback after stalling at recent highs, however I knew I had to control risk and get out of the way if things didn't work quickly.

took a 1 pt loss fighting the trend today on the S&P 500 futures contract.  The day turned out to be extremely strong.


Tuesday, June 5, 2012

So here's what's going on this morning.  Nothing too surprising.
Nothing really with a high probability to trade after the bell, I expect we will see this level hold and test the recent highs (last week), but remain somewhat rangebound to up.  

Better to wait for some more clarity to develop before getting on board.


Monday, June 4, 2012

Prices fell quickly this morning, and left everyone as a late short or on the sidelines.    This had me begging for a sharp correction and another attempt to get short.

Price did setup nicely and we got the short, however the risk was a bit higher than I would have liked as I kept it above the highs, and I was surprised to see the lack of follow though.   We barely cleared target before reversing back into the range.

Once we traded back into the range and failed to make new highs we eventually completed the next leg down, although it took most of the day.

1 pt in 65 mins from open




On the bigger picture we are testing a major support.  Unless we blow right though the level I would expect it to get a bit messy.


  

Saturday, June 2, 2012

Just a quick weekend snapshot of the longer term picture as we approach a 50-60% macro retrace....
With a potential decline to the 1080 level, a complex correction lis likely along the way.


And for the longer term investments, make sure you keep your perspective clear...
A premium buying opportunity, or beginning of a major correction?



Friday, June 1, 2012

Nice day of trading, the ES gave a clear setup after a strong move.  I'm normally a bit cautious after a strong am session, as things can slow down quickly, but I figured we had to run a few more stops below the lows and we did.

Got our 1 point within 90 minutes of the bell.